Study shows rail on bridge
would cost less than $758 million

MTC’s Bay Bridge Rail Study
cost estimates initially produced
by consultants
compared with
cost estimates published by MTC
after gross errors and following
[Caltrans] peer-review

Initial estimates included at least $100 million for seismic retrofit and structural upgrades [indicated in red, below] already planned. Post peer-review estimates rose over 400% to $3 billion.

DESCRIPTION
 (A)

FIRST
COST
ESTIMATES

 (B)

COST ESTIMATES
AFTER ERRORS
in millions in millions
San Francisco approaches
Tunnels $ 24 $ 25
Viaducts $ 0 $ 0
Continuous spans -- $ 60
Ramp revisions -- $ 108
Land or air rights acquisition $ 0 $ 0
subtotal
$ 24
$ 193
Increase
(+ 804%)
West Spans
Continuous spans -- $ 40
Suspended spans superstructure $ 295 $ 744
Deck replacements $ 100 --
Center anchorage $ 1 $ 100
SF and YBI anchorage $ 2 $ 150
Towers/foundations/protection $ 209 $ 300
Light piers/SF bent/other $ 1.2 --
subtotal
$ 608.2
$ 1334
increase
(+ 219%)
Yerba Buena Island
Approach from West Spans $ 4 $ 20
Ramp modifications $ 0 $ 72
Tunnels $ 30 $ 45
Approach from East Spans $ 4 $ 180
subtotal
$ 38
$ 317
increase
(+ 834 %)
East Spans
Deck improvements/modifications $ 15 $ 106
Deck strengthening $ 15 $ 440
Barriers/restriping $ 3.3 --
Viaducts $ 4.25 --
subtotal
$ 37.55
$ 546
increase
(+ 1454%)
Lane closures $ 50 --
increase
- $50
Oakland mole
Fly-overs -- $ 45
At-grade rail -- $ 15
subtotal
--
$ 60
25% contingency
(W.P.2A.3 only)		 -- $ 612
TOTAL $ 758 $ 3,062
percent increase (+ 403%)

ABOVE COSTS ARE X 1,000,000

N.B. The table is a side-by-side comparison of —column (A)—first cost estimates produced by consultants for structural modifications necessary to accommodate rail, and —column (B)— a second set of cost estimates produced by consultants and published by MTC in Working Paper 2A.3. For equal comparison, these two columns reproduce estimates for the hypothetical “below” option [rail deck below existing decks on the West Span]. In both earlier and later estimates, the “below” case was indicated as the least costly of three options considered in both earlier and later estimates. The full range of estimates was:

First cost estimates (A) $ 758 million - $ 905 million

Second cost estimates (B) $ 3.06 billion - $ 3.33 billion

Estimates in (A) were produced by consultants prior to a meeting scheduled October 12, 1999 with the Technical Advisory Committee;

Estimates in (B) are from Appendix A [Working Paper 2A.3], Bay Bridge Rail Study, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Feasibility Study Cost Estimate, published October 22, 1999. “Ove Arup and Partners” appears at the bottom of Appendix A.

Source: MTC

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